Club Queretaro v Toluca

Club Queretaro meet Toluca in the Liga MX apertura - 5 at Estadio La Corregidora, Santiago de Queretaro.

The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 48%. Attacking output favors Toluca on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.1 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 49%, over 2.5 goals around 44%. Draw no bet leans Toluca at 53%; double chance reads Club Queretaro or draw 63%, Toluca or draw 68%.

Club Queretaro arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 2 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Toluca, D 0-0 @ U.N.A.M. - Pumas, D 1-1 @ Los Angeles FC, L 0-3 @ Seattle Sounders.

Toluca are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Club Queretaro, D 0-0 @ Atlante FC, W 3-1 v FC Dallas, L 0-1 v Los Angeles FC.

Toluca hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Club Queretaro 1-2 Toluca.

The market prices CLU at 25% implied. Our number sits apart on Club Queretaro: a 7.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.