Where the market is wrong on Napoli v Bologna
Napoli meet Bologna in the Serie A regular season - 4 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples.
Napoli rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1638 to 1466. Recent form leans Napoli, 68% against 43%. Attacking output favors Napoli on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 64%. Draw no bet leans Napoli at 68%; double chance reads Napoli or draw 77%, Bologna or draw 51%.
Napoli arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 12 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Como, W 2-0 @ Genoa, W 6-2 v Aris Thessalonikis, D 1-1 v Celta Vigo.
Bologna are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Atalanta, L 0-1 v Lazio, L 0-1 @ Brighton, L 1-4 v Pisa.
Napoli hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Napoli 2-3 Bologna.
The market prices NAP at 59% implied. Our number sits apart on Bologna: a 7.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
