Where the market is wrong on Cagliari v Lecce
Cagliari meet Lecce in the Serie A regular season - 3 at Unipol Domus, Cagliari.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 48%. Attacking output favors Lecce on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 34%, over 2.5 goals around 25%. Draw no bet leans Cagliari at 50%; double chance reads Cagliari or draw 67%, Lecce or draw 66%.
Cagliari arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 4 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Inter, W 1-0 @ Parma, W 1-0 v Arezzo, D 0-0 v Nice.
Lecce are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 v AS Roma, W 2-0 @ Venezia, L 0-2 @ Palermo, W 1-0 v SS Monopoli.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Cagliari 0-2 Lecce.
The market prices CAG at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Lecce: a 7.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
