Where the market is wrong on Bologna v Lazio
Bologna meet Lazio in the Serie A regular season - 1 at Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna.
Lazio rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1638 to 1500. Recent form leans Lazio, 68% against 48%. Attacking output favors Lazio on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 57%, over 2.5 goals around 68%. Draw no bet leans Lazio at 65%; double chance reads Bologna or draw 53%, Lazio or draw 75%.
Bologna arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Lazio, L 0-1 @ Brighton, L 1-4 v Pisa, W 3-1 v Cambuur.
Lazio are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 9 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Bologna, L 0-2 v Mantova, W 2-1 @ Frosinone, W 4-0 v Ostia Mare.
Lazio hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Bologna 0-1 Lazio.
The market prices BOL at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on Lazio: a 19.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
