Where the market is wrong on Once Caldas v Deportes Tolima
Once Caldas meet Deportes Tolima in the Primera A clausura - 7 at Estadio Palogrande, Manizales.
The baseline ratings are close, 1541 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 59% against 53%. Attacking output favors Once Caldas on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.2 per match.
Once Caldas arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Fortaleza FC, D 1-1 @ Junior, D 1-1 @ Jaguares, L 0-1 v America de Cali.
Deportes Tolima are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Cucuta, L 1-3 @ Independiente del Valle, D 0-0 v Bucaramanga, L 0-1 v Independiente del Valle.
Deportes Tolima hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Deportes Tolima 2-1 Once Caldas.
The market prices ONC at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Deportes Tolima: a 3.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
