Ethiopia v Mozambique: the model read
Ethiopia meet Mozambique in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification group stage - 4.
The baseline ratings are close, 1447 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 38% against 32%. Attacking output favors Ethiopia on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.9 per match.
Ethiopia arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 7 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Malawi, W 1-0 v Malawi, W 1-0 v Sao Tome and Principe, W 3-0 @ Sao Tome and Principe.
Mozambique are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 5 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Indonesia, L 1-4 @ Oman, L 0-4 @ Nigeria, L 1-2 v Cameroon.
Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2023: Ethiopia 0-0 Mozambique.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
