Where the market is wrong on Avai v Vila Nova
Avai meet Vila Nova in the Serie B regular season - 28 at Estádio da Ressacada, Florianopolis.
Vila Nova rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1592 to 1454. Recent form leans Vila Nova, 60% against 40%. Attacking output favors Vila Nova on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Avai arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Vila Nova, L 0-1 @ Fortaleza EC, L 1-3 @ Novorizontino, L 0-1 v Atletico Goianiense.
Vila Nova are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Avai, W 2-0 v Goias, L 0-5 @ Athletic Club, W 2-0 v Ceara.
The market prices AVA at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on Vila Nova: a 8.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 73 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
