Where the market is wrong on Sport Recife v Ponte Preta
Sport Recife meet Ponte Preta in the Serie B regular season - 27 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Recife.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Sport Recife, 53% against 8%. Attacking output favors Sport Recife on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.6 per match.
Sport Recife arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Ponte Preta, L 1-2 @ Ceara, L 1-2 @ Novorizontino, W 3-0 v America Mineiro.
Ponte Preta are out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 0 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Sport Recife, L 0-2 v São Bernardo, L 0-2 @ America Mineiro, L 0-2 v Avai.
Sport Recife hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sport Recife 2-0 Ponte Preta.
The market prices SPO at 85% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 17.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
