Where the market is wrong on Mash'al v Andijan
Mash'al meet Andijan in the Super League regular season - 18 at Bahrom Vafoev Stadium, Muborak.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Andijan, 45% against 10%. Attacking output favors Andijan on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 20%, over 2.5 goals around 29%. Draw no bet leans Andijan at 70%; double chance reads Mash'al or draw 52%, Andijan or draw 80%.
Mash'al arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 2 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Andijan, L 0-2 @ Qizilqum, L 0-2 @ Xorazm, L 1-3 v Sogdiana.
Andijan are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 3 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Mash'al, L 0-3 v Neftchi, L 0-1 @ Sogdiana, D 0-0 v Pakhtakor.
The market prices MAS at 22% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output