Where the market is wrong on Kuressaare v Trans Narva
Kuressaare meet Trans Narva in the Meistriliiga regular season - 26 at Kuressaare Linnastaadion, Kuressaare.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 38%. Attacking output favors Kuressaare on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.5 per match.
Kuressaare arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 16 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Trans Narva, D 2-2 v Vaprus, L 0-1 @ Tammeka, W 3-2 @ Flora Tallinn.
Trans Narva are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Kuressaare, L 0-2 v Tammeka, W 2-0 v Kalju Nomme, L 0-4 @ FC Levadia Tallinn.
Kuressaare hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Kuressaare 3-1 Trans Narva.
The market prices KUR at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on Kuressaare: a 7.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 70 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
