Where the market is wrong on Phoenix Rising v FC Tulsa
Phoenix Rising meet FC Tulsa in the USL Championship group stage at Wild Horse Pass Stadium, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 57%. Attacking output favors Phoenix Rising on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.3 per match.
Phoenix Rising arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 10 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v FC Tulsa, D 1-1 @ Monterey Bay, W 2-1 v Indy Eleven, D 2-2 @ Sacramento Republic.
FC Tulsa are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Phoenix Rising, D 0-0 @ San Antonio, W 1-0 v Rhode Island, W 5-1 @ Orange County SC.
Phoenix Rising hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Phoenix Rising 2-1 FC Tulsa.
The market prices PHO at 47% implied. Our number sits apart on FC Tulsa: a 12.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
