Where the market is wrong on Vitoria v Gremio
Vitoria meet Gremio in the Serie A regular season - 26 at Barradao, Salvador.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1504, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 50%. Attacking output favors Vitoria on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.
Vitoria arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 2 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Atletico-MG, L 0-1 @ Vasco DA Gama, L 0-2 v Bahia, W 1-0 v Botafogo.
Gremio are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Chapecoense-sc, D 0-0 @ Internacional, L 0-1 @ RB Bragantino, L 0-3 @ Atletico-MG.
Gremio hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 0 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Gremio 2-0 Vitoria.
The market prices VIT at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on Gremio: a 9.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 74 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
