Where the market is wrong on St. Louis City v FC Dallas
St. Louis City meet FC Dallas in the Major League Soccer regular season - 22 at Energizer Park, St. Louis.
The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans St. Louis City, 68% against 57%. Attacking output favors St. Louis City on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.8 per match.
St. Louis City arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 10 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v FC Dallas, W 2-1 v Houston Dynamo, D 1-1 @ Sporting Kansas City, W 3-1 @ San Jose Earthquakes.
FC Dallas are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 10 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 @ St. Louis City, L 0-5 @ Vancouver Whitecaps, W 4-3 @ Real Salt Lake, W 2-1 @ Austin.
FC Dallas hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: St. Louis City 3-3 FC Dallas.
The market prices ST. at 47% implied. Our number sits apart on FC Dallas: a 4.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
