Where the market is wrong on Toronto FC v New York City FC
Toronto FC meet New York City FC in the Major League Soccer regular season - 22 at BMO Field, Toronto.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 43%. Attacking output favors Toronto FC on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Toronto FC arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v New York City FC, W 2-1 @ Inter Miami, D 3-3 v Charlotte, W 2-1 v New England Revolution.
New York City FC are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Toronto FC, D 1-1 @ New England Revolution, L 1-2 @ FC Cincinnati, L 2-3 v Philadelphia Union.
New York City FC hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Toronto FC 1-1 New York City FC.
The market prices TOR at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
