St. Louis City v Houston Dynamo

St. Louis City meet Houston Dynamo in the Major League Soccer regular season - 21 at CITYPARK, St. Louis.

The baseline ratings are close, 1638 to 1707, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 70% against 78%. Attacking output favors St. Louis City on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 53%, over 2.5 goals around 50%. Draw no bet leans Houston Dynamo at 56%; double chance reads St. Louis City or draw 61%, Houston Dynamo or draw 70%.

St. Louis City arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Houston Dynamo, D 1-1 @ Sporting Kansas City, W 3-1 @ San Jose Earthquakes, D 1-1 v Real Salt Lake.

Houston Dynamo are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 7 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ St. Louis City, W 1-0 @ Vancouver Whitecaps, W 1-0 v Los Angeles Galaxy, W 2-0 @ New England Revolution.

St. Louis City hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: St. Louis City 2-1 Houston Dynamo.

The market prices ST. at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on Houston Dynamo: a 11.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.