Where the market is wrong on Toronto FC v Charlotte
Toronto FC meet Charlotte in the Major League Soccer regular season - 20 at BMO Field, Toronto.
The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1553, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 55%. Attacking output favors Charlotte on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 71%, over 2.5 goals around 76%. Draw no bet leans Charlotte at 59%; double chance reads Toronto FC or draw 57%, Charlotte or draw 71%.
Toronto FC arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Inter Miami, D 3-3 v Charlotte, W 2-1 v New England Revolution, D 1-1 @ New York City FC.
Charlotte are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 11 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v DC United, D 3-3 @ Toronto FC, W 3-1 v Columbus Crew, L 0-1 v CF Pachuca.
Charlotte hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Toronto FC 3-3 Charlotte.
The market prices TOR at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Charlotte: a 9.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 77 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
