Italy v Northern Ireland: the model read
Italy meet Northern Ireland in the World Cup - Qualification Europe semi-finals at New Balance Arena, Bergamo.
Italy rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1673 to 1512. Recent form leans Italy, 73% against 50%. Attacking output favors Italy on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.3 per match.
Italy arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Greece, W 1-0 @ Luxembourg, D 1-1 @ Bosnia & Herzegovina, W 2-0 v Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ France, W 1-0 v Guinea, D 1-1 @ Wales, L 0-2 @ Italy.
Italy hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Italy 2-0 Northern Ireland.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
