Where the market is wrong on Thailand v Philippines
Thailand meet Philippines in the FIFA Asean Cup division 1 - 3 at Si Jalak Harupat Stadium, Bandung.
The baseline ratings are close, 1673 to 1592, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Thailand, 73% against 63%. Attacking output favors Thailand on expected goals, 2.3 to 2.0 per match.
Thailand arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Philippines, W 2-0 v Vietnam, W 4-0 @ Pakistan, D 2-2 @ Vietnam.
Philippines are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Thailand, D 2-2 v Pakistan, L 0-1 @ Vietnam, L 0-1 @ Malaysia.
Thailand hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Thailand 1-2 Philippines.
The market prices THA at 61% implied. Our number sits apart on Philippines: a 11.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
