Where the market is wrong on Fiji v Papua New Guinea
Fiji meet Papua New Guinea in the Friendlies friendly international.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1445, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 42%. Attacking output favors Papua New Guinea on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.0 per match.
Fiji arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Papua New Guinea, L 0-1 v Vanuatu, D 2-2 @ Vanuatu, L 1-2 @ Vanuatu.
Papua New Guinea are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Fiji, L 1-2 v New Caledonia, D 1-1 v Vanuatu, W 2-0 v Fiji.
The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Fiji 2-0 Papua New Guinea.
The market prices FIJ at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on Papua New Guinea: a 9.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 75 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
