Where the market is wrong on Seychelles v Sri Lanka
Seychelles meet Sri Lanka in the Friendlies friendly international at Stade Linite, Victoria.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Sri Lanka, 50% against 10%. Attacking output favors Sri Lanka on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.5 per match.
Seychelles arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 1 scored and 19 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Sri Lanka, L 1-2 @ Lesotho, D 0-0 v Lesotho, L 0-7 v Gambia.
Sri Lanka are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Seychelles, W 4-1 v Bhutan, W 3-1 @ Chinese Taipei, L 0-4 v Thailand.
The market prices SEY at 34% implied. Our number sits apart on Sri Lanka: a 15.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 86 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
