Where the market is wrong on Emelec v Libertad
Emelec meet Libertad in the Liga Pro placement group - 1 at Estadio George Capwell, Guayaquil.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 57%. Attacking output favors Libertad on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.8 per match.
Emelec arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Libertad, L 0-1 @ Macara, W 1-0 v Manta FC, D 1-1 @ Libertad.
Libertad are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Emelec, L 2-3 v Independiente del Valle, W 1-0 @ Deportivo Cuenca, D 1-1 v Emelec.
The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece with 5 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Emelec 1-2 Libertad.
The market prices EME at 55% implied. Our number sits apart on Libertad: a 19.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
