Where the market is wrong on Follo v Sarpsborg 08 FF
Follo meet Sarpsborg 08 FF in the NM Cupen round of 64 at Ski Stadion, Ski.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1504, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Sarpsborg 08 FF, 50% against 28%. Attacking output favors Sarpsborg 08 FF on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Follo arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Sarpsborg 08 FF, D 2-2 @ Kjelsås, L 0-1 v Eidsvold, L 2-5 @ Levanger.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Follo, L 1-3 v KFUM Oslo, D 1-1 @ Fredrikstad, D 2-2 v Valerenga.
Sarpsborg 08 FF hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Follo 0-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
The market prices FOL at 4% implied. Our number sits apart on Follo: a 23.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
