Where the market is wrong on New Lambton v Kahibah
New Lambton meet Kahibah in the Northern NSW NPL semi-finals at Alder Park, undefined.
New Lambton rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1558 to 1408. Recent form leans New Lambton, 55% against 33%. Attacking output favors New Lambton on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 84%, over 2.5 goals around 93%. Draw no bet leans New Lambton at 63%; double chance reads New Lambton or draw 73%, Kahibah or draw 53%.
New Lambton arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 8 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Kahibah, W 4-3 v Cessnock City Hornets, L 0-1 @ Dudley Redhead United, W 2-0 @ West Wallsend.
Kahibah are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ New Lambton, L 2-4 v Cooks Hill United, L 1-2 v Maitland, W 1-0 @ Broadmeadow Magic.
The market prices NEW at 27% implied. Our number sits apart on New Lambton: a 20.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output