Where the market is wrong on Erbil v Diyala
Erbil meet Diyala in the Iraqi League regular season - 6 at Franso Hariri Stadium, Arbil.
Erbil rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1684 to 1477. Recent form leans Erbil, 78% against 45%. Attacking output favors Erbil on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.
Erbil arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 6 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Diyala, D 0-0 @ Al Shorta, W 2-0 v Al Minaa Basra, W 1-0 @ Al Karkh.
Diyala are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Erbil, L 1-2 v Al-Karma, D 3-3 v Al-Jolan SC, D 2-2 @ Zakho.
The market prices ERB at 50% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output