Where the market is wrong on Motherwell v SC Freiburg
Motherwell meet SC Freiburg in the UEFA Europa Conference League playoff round at Fir Park, Motherwell.
SC Freiburg rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1443. Recent form leans SC Freiburg, 68% against 40%. Attacking output favors SC Freiburg on expected goals, 2.3 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 66%, over 2.5 goals around 79%. Draw no bet leans SC Freiburg at 66%; double chance reads Motherwell or draw 51%, SC Freiburg or draw 75%.
Motherwell arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v SC Freiburg, L 0-1 @ Stenhousemuir, W 2-0 v HJK Helsinki, D 0-0 v Falkirk.
SC Freiburg are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 16 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 @ Fortuna Düsseldorf, W 3-1 @ Motherwell, W 3-0 v Crystal Palace, W 2-0 v Strasbourg.
The market prices MOT at 18% implied. Our number sits apart on Motherwell: a 7.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output