Birmingham v Brentford

Birmingham meet Brentford in the League Cup round of 64 at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Birmingham.

The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 63%. Attacking output favors Brentford on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.3 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 59%, over 2.5 goals around 58%. Draw no bet leans Brentford at 56%; double chance reads Birmingham or draw 61%, Brentford or draw 69%.

Birmingham arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-6 v Brentford, D 2-2 v Bristol City, D 0-0 @ Sheffield Utd, W 1-0 @ Swansea.

Brentford are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 21 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 6-1 @ Birmingham, W 3-0 v Tottenham, W 7-0 v Eintracht Frankfurt, W 4-2 @ Rennes.

Brentford hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Birmingham 1-6 Brentford.

The market prices BIR at 23% implied. Our number sits apart on Birmingham: a 7.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.