Levski Sofia v AEK Athens FC

Levski Sofia meet AEK Athens FC in the UEFA Champions League play-offs at National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia.

The baseline ratings are close, 1707 to 1638, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Levski Sofia, 80% against 70%. Attacking output favors Levski Sofia on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 33%, over 2.5 goals around 34%. Draw no bet leans Levski Sofia at 64%; double chance reads Levski Sofia or draw 75%, AEK Athens FC or draw 56%.

Levski Sofia arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts), 10 scored and 0 conceded. Recent results: W 6-0 v Spartak Varna, D 0-0 v AEK Athens FC, W 1-0 @ Kairat Almaty, W 2-0 v Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

AEK Athens FC are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 13 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v Iraklis 1908, D 0-0 @ Levski Sofia, D 2-2 v OFI, W 4-0 v Kallithea.

Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: Levski Sofia 0-0 AEK Athens FC.

The market prices LEV at 29% implied. Our number sits apart on Levski Sofia: a 14.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.