AFC Bournemouth U21 v Chelsea U21

AFC Bournemouth U21 meet Chelsea U21 in the Premier League 2 Division One regular season at The Wyatt Homes Stadium, Dorset.

The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1553, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 55%. Attacking output favors AFC Bournemouth U21 on expected goals, 2.5 to 2.2 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 93%, over 2.5 goals around 96%. Draw no bet leans Chelsea U21 at 50%; double chance reads AFC Bournemouth U21 or draw 63%, Chelsea U21 or draw 63%.

AFC Bournemouth U21 arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Chelsea U21, L 1-4 @ Cardiff City U21, D 2-2 v Worthing, L 1-4 @ Huddersfield Town U21.

Chelsea U21 are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Bristol Rovers, L 1-2 @ AFC Bournemouth U21, D 0-0 v Cardiff City U21, L 1-3 v Tottenham Hotspur U21.

Chelsea U21 hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: AFC Bournemouth U21 2-1 Chelsea U21.

The market prices AFC at 21% implied. Our number sits apart on AFC Bournemouth U21: a 15.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.