Maccabi Haifa v Hapoel Katamon

Maccabi Haifa meet Hapoel Katamon in the Toto Cup Ligat Al 9th place final at Sammy Ofer Stadium, Haifa.

The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1492, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 47%. Attacking output favors Maccabi Haifa on expected goals, 1.7 to 0.9 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 57%, over 2.5 goals around 54%. Draw no bet leans Maccabi Haifa at 54%; double chance reads Maccabi Haifa or draw 68%, Hapoel Katamon or draw 62%.

Maccabi Haifa arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Hapoel Ramat Gan, L 0-1 v Hapoel Katamon, W 1-0 @ Bnei Sakhnin, W 4-2 v Ironi Tiberias.

Hapoel Katamon are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 2-5 v Maccabi Tel Aviv, W 1-0 @ Maccabi Haifa, W 3-1 v Hapoel Petah Tikva, D 2-2 @ Hapoel Ramat Gan.

Maccabi Haifa hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Maccabi Haifa 0-1 Hapoel Katamon.

The market prices MAC at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on Hapoel Katamon: a 11.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.