Machico v Camacha: the model read
Machico meet Camacha in the Taça de Portugal 1/128-finals.
The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Machico, 63% against 48%. Attacking output favors Machico on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.1 per match.
Machico arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 6 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Camacha, W 2-0 @ Beira-Mar, D 0-0 v Estrela Calheta, D 0-0 @ Maritimo.
Camacha are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Machico, W 2-1 @ Alpendorada, D 1-1 v Salgueiros, L 0-2 @ Maritimo.
Camacha hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 5 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Machico 2-2 Camacha.
The market prices MAC at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 2.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
