Beira-Mar v União Lamas

Beira-Mar meet União Lamas in the Taça de Portugal 1/128-finals.

The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1432, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Beira-Mar, 55% against 42%. Attacking output favors Beira-Mar on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 32%, over 2.5 goals around 28%. Draw no bet leans Beira-Mar at 60%; double chance reads Beira-Mar or draw 73%, União Lamas or draw 60%.

Beira-Mar arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v União Lamas, L 0-2 v Machico, D 1-1 @ Sanjoanense, W 2-1 @ Tondela.

União Lamas are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 @ Beira-Mar, L 0-1 @ Ovarense, D 1-1 v Florgrade, D 2-2 v Feirense.

Beira-Mar hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Beira-Mar 3-3 União Lamas.

The market prices BEI at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on União Lamas: a 4.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.