Where the market is wrong on Esteghlal FC v Sepahan FC
Esteghlal FC meet Sepahan FC in the Persian Gulf Pro League regular season - 3 at Azadi Stadium, Tehran.
Esteghlal FC rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1636 to 1463. Recent form leans Esteghlal FC, 68% against 44%. Attacking output favors Esteghlal FC on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 23%, over 2.5 goals around 22%. Draw no bet leans Esteghlal FC at 64%; double chance reads Esteghlal FC or draw 76%, Sepahan FC or draw 58%.
Esteghlal FC arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 10 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Sepahan FC, W 1-0 @ Nassaji Mazandaran, W 4-0 v Mes Shahr-e Babak, W 2-1 v Fajr Sepasi.
Sepahan FC are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Esteghlal FC, L 0-2 v Tractor Sazi, W 2-0 @ Chadormalu SC, D 0-0 @ Paykan.
The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Esteghlal FC 2-0 Sepahan FC.
The market prices EST at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on Esteghlal FC: a 5.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 65 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
