Where the market is wrong on Paraguari AC v Sportivo Luqueno
Paraguari AC meet Sportivo Luqueno in the Copa Paraguay round of 32 at Municipal de Carapegua, Carapegua.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1408, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 38% against 35%. Attacking output favors Sportivo Luqueno on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 36%. Draw no bet leans Paraguari AC at 50%; double chance reads Paraguari AC or draw 66%, Sportivo Luqueno or draw 66%.
Paraguari AC arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Sportivo Luqueno, D 1-1 v SOL DE America, W 1-0 @ Encarnación, W 2-1 v Deportivo Capiata.
Sportivo Luqueno are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Paraguari AC, L 1-2 v Libertad Asuncion, W 2-0 @ Club Sp. San Lorenzo, L 0-3 @ Cerro Porteno.
The market prices PAR at 18% implied. Our number sits apart on Paraguari AC: a 16.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 80 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
