Where the market is wrong on Dila v Samgurali
Dila meet Samgurali in the David Kipiani Cup quarter-finals at Tengiz Burjanadze Stadium, Gori.
The baseline ratings are close, 1516 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 53%. Attacking output favors Samgurali on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 65%, over 2.5 goals around 64%. Draw no bet leans Dila at 53%; double chance reads Dila or draw 67%, Samgurali or draw 62%.
Dila arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Samgurali, D 2-2 v Torpedo Kutaisi, W 3-1 v Meshakhte, W 2-0 @ Gori.
Samgurali are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Dila, W 4-3 @ Spaeri, L 0-4 v Dinamo Batumi, W 2-1 @ Meshakhte.
Dila hold the recent head-to-head, 8 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Dila 2-1 Samgurali.
The market prices DIL at 29% implied. Our number sits apart on Dila: a 9.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 74 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
