Where the market is wrong on Samtredia v FC Iberia 1999
Samtredia meet FC Iberia 1999 in the David Kipiani Cup round of 16.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 48%. Attacking output favors Samtredia on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.
Samtredia arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 11 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v FC Iberia 1999, W 3-0 v Odishi 1919, W 1-0 @ Shturmi, W 1-0 v Gori.
FC Iberia 1999 are out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 4 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Samtredia, L 0-2 @ Gagra, L 1-2 v Jagiellonia, L 0-4 @ Jagiellonia.
FC Iberia 1999 hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Samtredia 2-0 FC Iberia 1999.
The market prices SAM at 17% implied. Our number sits apart on Samtredia: a 22.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
