Where the market is wrong on Al Taawon v Al-Fateh
Al Taawon meet Al-Fateh in the Pro League regular season - 5 at Al Taawon Arena, Buraidah.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Al Taawon, 45% against 30%. Attacking output favors Al Taawon on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.8 per match.
Al Taawon arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Al-Nassr, D 0-0 v Al-Fayha, L 2-3 @ Al Kholood, W 3-0 @ Damac.
Al-Fateh are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 1 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Al-Ittihad FC, D 1-1 @ Al-Faisaly FC, L 0-1 v Al-Ettifaq, L 0-3 @ Al Ula.
The market prices AL at 51% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 5.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
