Al Riyadh v NEOM

Al Riyadh meet NEOM in the Pro League regular season - 4 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Riyadh.

The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans NEOM, 57% against 48%. Attacking output favors Al Riyadh on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 57%, over 2.5 goals around 58%. Draw no bet leans NEOM at 58%; double chance reads Al Riyadh or draw 59%, NEOM or draw 70%.

Al Riyadh arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v NEOM, D 3-3 @ Al Shabab, L 0-4 v Al-Nassr, W 2-0 @ Al Zulfi.

NEOM are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Al Riyadh, L 0-2 v Al-Qadisiyah FC, W 2-0 @ Al-Faisaly FC, W 3-1 @ Al-Faisaly FC.

NEOM hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Al Riyadh 1-0 NEOM.

The market prices AL at 24% implied. Our number sits apart on Al Riyadh: a 5.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.