Where the market is wrong on Boden v IFK Östersund
Boden meet IFK Östersund in the Division 2 - Norrland norrland - promotion round.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 53%. Attacking output favors IFK Östersund on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 70%, over 2.5 goals around 70%. Draw no bet leans IFK Östersund at 51%; double chance reads Boden or draw 64%, IFK Östersund or draw 65%.
Boden arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v IFK Östersund, W 3-2 v Gottne, W 1-0 @ IFK Luleå, W 2-1 v Täfteå.
IFK Östersund are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Boden, L 1-5 v Degerfors IF, W 1-0 v Lucksta, L 0-4 @ Gottne.
Boden hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Boden 2-2 IFK Östersund.
The market prices BOD at 30% implied. Our number sits apart on Boden: a 5.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
