Where the market is wrong on Estrela U23 v União Leiria U23
Estrela U23 meet União Leiria U23 in the Liga Revelação U23 regular season - 5.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 45%. Attacking output favors União Leiria U23 on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.9 per match.
Estrela U23 arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 3 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v União Leiria U23, L 1-2 v Sporting CP U23, D 0-0 @ Marítimo U23, L 0-3 v Leixões U23.
União Leiria U23 are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Estrela U23, W 2-0 v Marítimo U23, W 2-1 @ Leixões U23, D 1-1 @ Sporting CP U23.
Estrela U23 hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Estrela U23 2-0 União Leiria U23.
The market prices EST at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output