Where the market is wrong on Merthyr Town v Marine
Merthyr Town meet Marine in the National League - North national league north - 10 at Penydarren Park, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 53%. Attacking output favors Marine on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Merthyr Town arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Marine, L 0-2 @ Truro City, D 1-1 v Truro City, D 0-0 @ Scarborough Athletic.
Marine are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Merthyr Town, W 3-2 v Radcliffe, W 2-1 v Darlington 1883, L 1-2 @ South Shields.
Marine hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Merthyr Town 1-2 Marine.
The market prices MER at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on Marine: a 11.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 79 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
