Sutton Utd v Hartlepool

Sutton Utd meet Hartlepool in the National League regular season - 3 at VBS Community Stadium, London.

The baseline ratings are close, 1547 to 1592, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 56% against 60%. Attacking output favors Sutton Utd on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 62%, over 2.5 goals around 64%. Draw no bet leans Sutton Utd at 58%; double chance reads Sutton Utd or draw 70%, Hartlepool or draw 59%.

Sutton Utd arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts), 9 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Hartlepool, D 0-0 v Leicester City U21, W 1-0 v Altrincham, W 3-0 @ Woking.

Hartlepool are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 5 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Sutton Utd, W 1-0 @ Aldershot Town, L 0-10 v Middlesbrough U21, W 2-0 v Barrow.

The market prices SUT at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on Sutton Utd: a 3.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 60 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.