Fiorentina W v Sassuolo W

Fiorentina W meet Sassuolo W in the Serie A Cup Women group stage - 1 at Curva Fiesole - Viola Park, Bagno a Ripoli.

The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Fiorentina W, 50% against 33%. Attacking output favors Fiorentina W on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.9 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 46%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Fiorentina W at 59%; double chance reads Fiorentina W or draw 72%, Sassuolo W or draw 59%.

Fiorentina W arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Sassuolo W, W 2-1 v Lazio W, W 3-2 @ Genoa W, W 1-0 v Como W.

Sassuolo W are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Fiorentina W, D 1-1 @ Napoli W, L 0-3 v Roma W, D 0-0 v Genoa W.

Fiorentina W hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Fiorentina W 1-2 Sassuolo W.

The market prices FIO at 65% implied. Our number sits apart on Sassuolo W: a 14.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.