Pontypridd Town v Llantwit Major

Pontypridd Town meet Llantwit Major in the FAW Championship south - 6 at USW Sports Park, Pontypridd.

Pontypridd Town rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1546 to 1408. Recent form leans Pontypridd Town, 55% against 35%. Attacking output favors Pontypridd Town on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 78%, over 2.5 goals around 86%. Draw no bet leans Pontypridd Town at 61%; double chance reads Pontypridd Town or draw 71%, Llantwit Major or draw 55%.

Pontypridd Town arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 16 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 4-4 @ Swansea University, W 2-1 v Trethomas Bluebirds, W 4-1 @ Cardiff Draconians, W 3-2 v Pontardawe Town.

Llantwit Major are out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 2 scored and 17 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 @ Aberystwyth Town, L 0-1 v Baglan Dragons, L 0-5 @ Afan Lido, L 0-3 v Swansea University.

Llantwit Major hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Pontypridd Town 0-4 Llantwit Major.

The market prices PON at 73% implied. Our number sits apart on Llantwit Major: a 18.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.