Newport City v Baglan Dragons: the model read
Newport City meet Baglan Dragons in the FAW Championship south - 4.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 33% against 33%. Attacking output favors Newport City on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 41%, over 2.5 goals around 38%. Draw no bet leans Newport City at 59%; double chance reads Newport City or draw 72%, Baglan Dragons or draw 60%.
Newport City arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Baglan Dragons, W 4-0 @ Pontardawe Town, L 1-2 v Carmarthen Town, W 4-1 @ llanelli AFC.
Baglan Dragons are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 3 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Newport City, W 1-0 @ Llantwit Major, L 0-3 v Swansea University, D 0-0 @ Trethomas Bluebirds.
The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Newport City 0-1 Baglan Dragons.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output