Where the market is wrong on SC Paderborn 07 v SC Freiburg
SC Paderborn 07 meet SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga regular season - 2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn.
The baseline ratings are close, 1627 to 1650, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 70% against 68%. Attacking output favors SC Freiburg on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.9 per match.
SC Paderborn 07 arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 11 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ FSV Mainz 05, W 4-2 @ Phönix Lübeck, D 2-2 @ Werder Bremen, W 2-0 @ VfL Osnabrück.
SC Freiburg are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 19 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Werder Bremen, W 4-1 v Motherwell, W 5-1 @ Fortuna Düsseldorf, W 3-1 @ Motherwell.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 1 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2023: SC Freiburg 1-3 SC Paderborn 07.
The market prices SC at 28% implied. Our number sits apart on SC Paderborn 07: a 5.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
