Tenerife v Almeria

Tenerife meet Almeria in the Segunda División regular season - 2 at Heliodoro Rodríguez López, Santa Cruz de Tenerife.

The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Tenerife, 63% against 53%. Attacking output favors Tenerife on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.5 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 47%. Draw no bet leans Tenerife at 59%; double chance reads Tenerife or draw 72%, Almeria or draw 59%.

Tenerife arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 7 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Sporting Gijon, W 1-0 v Almeria, W 3-1 @ Eibar, D 0-0 @ Leganes.

Almeria are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 9 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Sabadell, L 0-1 @ Tenerife, W 3-0 v Eldense, W 4-0 @ Cordoba.

Almeria hold the recent head-to-head, 8 wins to 2 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Tenerife 1-0 Almeria.

The market prices TEN at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on Tenerife: a 6.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 69 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.