Where the market is wrong on Fleetwood Town v Rochdale
Fleetwood Town meet Rochdale in the League Two regular season - 8 at Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood.
The baseline ratings are close, 1589 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Fleetwood Town, 63% against 48%. Attacking output favors Rochdale on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Fleetwood Town arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Rochdale, L 0-1 @ Oldham, L 1-3 @ Barnet, W 1-0 v Sheffield Utd.
Rochdale are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Fleetwood Town, D 3-3 v Liverpool U21, W 2-0 v Oldham, D 0-0 @ Walsall.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Fleetwood Town 1-2 Rochdale.
The market prices FLE at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
