Where the market is wrong on Colchester v Rochdale
Colchester meet Rochdale in the League Two regular season - 3.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 48%. Attacking output favors Rochdale on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.5 per match.
Colchester arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Bristol Rovers, W 1-0 v Rochdale, W 2-1 v Oldham, D 2-2 @ Accrington ST.
Rochdale are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Shrewsbury, L 0-1 @ Colchester, L 1-2 v Crawley Town, L 0-3 @ Newport County.
The market prices COL at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on Rochdale: a 3.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
