Where the market is wrong on Burnley v Bristol City
Burnley meet Bristol City in the Championship regular season - 5 at Turf Moor, Burnley.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Bristol City, 50% against 20%. Attacking output favors Bristol City on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.8 per match.
Burnley arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ Norwich, D 0-0 @ Bradford, L 1-3 @ West Brom, D 2-2 v West Ham.
Bristol City are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Preston, W 2-1 v Portsmouth, D 2-2 @ Birmingham, L 0-2 v Millwall.
The market prices BUR at 52% implied. Our number sits apart on Bristol City: a 24.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
