Where the market is wrong on Derby v Swansea
Derby meet Swansea in the Championship regular season - 3 at Pride Park, Derby.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Swansea, 57% against 40%. Attacking output favors Swansea on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Derby arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Swansea, D 2-2 v Cardiff, L 1-2 @ Charlton, L 1-2 v Lincoln.
Swansea are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 6 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Derby, D 0-0 v Sheffield Utd, W 2-1 @ Stoke City, L 0-1 v Birmingham.
Swansea hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Derby 0-3 Swansea.
The market prices DER at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Swansea: a 7.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 71 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
